Methodology Blog

Deep dives into the mathematics and statistics behind FootballMoney's prediction models.

METHODOLOGY · FOOTBALL ANALYTICS

How ELO Ratings Work in Football Prediction

The complete guide to ELO rating systems: the formula, home advantage adjustments, K-factor selection, and how FootballMoney integrates ELO into its Bayesian ensemble.

8 min read · June 2026

METHODOLOGY · STATISTICS

Bayesian Poisson Models for Football Score Prediction

How Bayesian Poisson models predict football scores using attack/defense strength priors, conjugate Gamma-Poisson updates, and the Dixon-Coles correlation correction.

7 min read · June 2026

METHODOLOGY · BETTING MATHEMATICS

Kelly Criterion: The Mathematics of Optimal Bet Sizing

How the Kelly criterion determines optimal bet size from expected value and odds. Covers full Kelly, half-Kelly safety adjustment, and practical application.

6 min read · June 2026