AI Verdict
Away Win — 52% probability ★★★★☆
- J. Nelson (Austin) — Minor Missing Fixture
- O. Urhoghide (FC Dallas) — Minor Missing Fixture
- P. Musa (FC Dallas) — Minor Missing Fixture
Confidence: Decisive · Updated: Mon, Aug 17, 2026 08:30 AM
AI Prediction
Predicted outcome: Away Win (28% probability)
- Home Win: 28%
- Draw: 20%
- Away Win: 52%
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%)
Model Confidence
Confidence Rating: Decisive (68%)
Clear separation between top 2 outcomes
Prediction Evolution (14 snapshots)
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 1%
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0% (Δ Away -0.1%)
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 18:56 — Home 36% / Draw 26% / Away 38% (Δ Home +35.3%, Draw +25.9%, Away +37.7%)
- 18:56 — Home 36% / Draw 26% / Away 38%
- 18:56 — Home 36% / Draw 26% / Away 38%
- 18:56 — Home 36% / Draw 26% / Away 38%
- 18:56 — Home 36% / Draw 26% / Away 38%
- 18:56 — Home 36% / Draw 26% / Away 38%
- 18:56 — Home 36% / Draw 26% / Away 38%
- 18:56 — Home 36% / Draw 26% / Away 38%
- 18:56 — Home 36% / Draw 26% / Away 38%
- 18:56 — Home 36% / Draw 26% / Away 38%
Advanced Details
Match Signals
- 🩹 J. Nelson (Austin) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 O. Urhoghide (FC Dallas) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 P. Musa (FC Dallas) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 B. Kamungo (FC Dallas) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 M. Uzuni (Austin) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 R. Taylor (Austin) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 B. Hines-Ike (Austin) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 A. A. Julio Santos (FC Dallas) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 Geovane Jesus (FC Dallas) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 L. Deedson (FC Dallas) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why is Away Win the clear favorite?
- The AI model assigns 52% probability to Away Win, indicating strong confidence based on historical data, ELO ratings, and recent form analysis.
- What is the biggest factor affecting this prediction?
- J. Nelson (Austin) — Minor Missing Fixture
- How confident is the model in this ranking (Decisive, 68%)?
- Model Confidence measures how certain the AI is about the order of outcomes, not any single probability. A clear gap between the top two outcomes gives the model high conviction in its ranking.
- How does the AI prediction model work?
- Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting and Random Forest models trained on historical match data, ELO team ratings, recent form, and statistical metrics. Score distributions use Poisson-based simulations for the most likely scorelines.