AI Verdict
Home Win — 74% probability ★★★★★
- C. Wallem (St. Louis City) — Minor Missing Fixture
- J. Orozco (St. Louis City) — Minor Missing Fixture
- S. Jeong (St. Louis City) — Minor Missing Fixture
Confidence: Decisive · Updated: Sun, Aug 16, 2026 10:30 AM
AI Prediction
Predicted outcome: Home Win (74% probability)
- Home Win: 74%
- Draw: 13%
- Away Win: 13%
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%)
Model Confidence
Confidence Rating: Decisive (100%)
Clear separation between top 2 outcomes
Prediction Evolution (15 snapshots)
- 17:10 — Home 1% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 17:10 — Home 1% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0% (Δ Home -0.3%, Draw +0.1%, Away +0.2%)
- 17:10 — Home 1% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 18:56 — Home 49% / Draw 23% / Away 28% (Δ Home +48.4%, Draw +22.9%, Away +27.8%)
- 18:56 — Home 49% / Draw 23% / Away 28%
- 18:56 — Home 49% / Draw 23% / Away 28%
- 18:56 — Home 49% / Draw 23% / Away 28%
- 18:56 — Home 49% / Draw 23% / Away 28%
- 18:56 — Home 49% / Draw 23% / Away 28%
- 18:56 — Home 49% / Draw 23% / Away 28%
- 18:56 — Home 49% / Draw 23% / Away 28%
- 18:56 — Home 49% / Draw 23% / Away 28%
- 18:56 — Home 49% / Draw 23% / Away 28%
- 18:56 — Home 49% / Draw 23% / Away 28%
Advanced Details
Match Signals
- 🩹 C. Wallem (St. Louis City) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 J. Orozco (St. Louis City) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 S. Jeong (St. Louis City) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 T. Werner (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 Vitor Costa (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 S. Cordova (St. Louis City) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 Celio Pompeu (St. Louis City) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 R. Burki (St. Louis City) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 N. Tsakiris (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 D. Jones (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 E. Edwards (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why is Home Win the clear favorite?
- The AI model assigns 74% probability to Home Win, indicating strong confidence based on historical data, ELO ratings, and recent form analysis.
- What is the biggest factor affecting this prediction?
- C. Wallem (St. Louis City) — Minor Missing Fixture
- How confident is the model in this ranking (Decisive, 100%)?
- Model Confidence measures how certain the AI is about the order of outcomes, not any single probability. A clear gap between the top two outcomes gives the model high conviction in its ranking.
- How does the AI prediction model work?
- Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting and Random Forest models trained on historical match data, ELO team ratings, recent form, and statistical metrics. Score distributions use Poisson-based simulations for the most likely scorelines.