AI Verdict
Home Win — 45% probability ★★☆☆☆
- C. Durkin (St. Louis City) — Injury default
- Celio Pompeu (St. Louis City) — Injury Knee
- R. Burki (St. Louis City) — Injury Thigh
Confidence: Uncertain · Updated: Sun, Aug 23, 2026 08:30 AM
AI Prediction
Predicted outcome: Home Win (45% probability)
- Home Win: 45%
- Draw: 17%
- Away Win: 38%
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%)
Model Confidence
Confidence Rating: Uncertain (20%)
Very close race — model is uncertain about the ranking
Prediction Evolution (7 snapshots)
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 08:22 — Home 41% / Draw 26% / Away 33% (Δ Home +40.5%, Draw +25.6%, Away +33.0%)
- 08:22 — Home 41% / Draw 26% / Away 33%
- 08:22 — Home 41% / Draw 26% / Away 33%
Advanced Details
Match Signals
- 🩹 C. Durkin (St. Louis City) — Injury default ✅ confirmed
- 🩹 Celio Pompeu (St. Louis City) — Injury Knee ✅ confirmed
- 🩹 R. Burki (St. Louis City) — Injury Thigh ✅ confirmed
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is Home Win really likely to win?
- Home Win has a 45% edge — the model sees a slight advantage but recognizes the matchup is competitive. Draw (17%) and the other outcome are both realistic possibilities.
- What is the biggest factor affecting this prediction?
- C. Durkin (St. Louis City) — Injury default
- How confident is the model in this ranking (Uncertain, 20%)?
- Model Confidence measures how certain the AI is about the order of outcomes, not any single probability. This is a toss-up — the model struggles to separate the outcomes confidently.
- How does the AI prediction model work?
- Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting and Random Forest models trained on historical match data, ELO team ratings, recent form, and statistical metrics. Score distributions use Poisson-based simulations for the most likely scorelines.