AI Verdict
Away Win — 49% probability ★★☆☆☆
Confidence: Moderate · Updated: Thu, May 28, 2026 08:30 AM
AI Prediction
Predicted outcome: Away Win (33% probability)
- Home Win: 33%
- Draw: 18%
- Away Win: 49%
Model Confidence
Confidence Rating: Moderate (33%)
Marginal separation — outcomes are close
This measures how certain the AI is about the ranking of outcomes (Home Win > Draw > Away Win), not the probability of any single outcome.
Match Pulse
➡️ Outlook stable (LOW CONFIDENCE)
No significant events detected
Prediction Timeline
How the AI's prediction evolved during the match — from kickoff to final whistle.
Prediction Stability: Stable
Prediction remained stable
Probability swing: 0%
Turning Point: 55' — Equalizer at 55′ — the match shifted away from the predicted outcome
Equalizer at 55′ — the match shifted away from the predicted outcome
In-Match Probability Shifts
- — H: 33% / D: 18% / A: 49% [Kickoff]
- 45' — H: 25% / D: 14% / A: 61% [Goal]
- 55' — H: 40% / D: 7% / A: 53% [Goal]
- 90' — H: 31% / D: 4% / A: 65% [Goal]
- 90' — H: 23% / D: 1% / A: 77% [Goal]
Explainable AI Review
After the match, the AI explains why its prediction succeeded or failed.
Predicted: [object Object]
Actual: [object Object]
Prediction Correct? ✅ Yes
What Went Wrong — And Why
The model's prediction held — it expected a away win (49% confidence) but the match ended 1-3. Bolívar had 16% more possession than the model anticipated (66% actual vs ~50% expected). Primary factor: Home team had far more possession than expected.
Key Deviations
Where the match numbers diverged from model expectations.
- Possession: Expected 50%, Actual 66% (Δ16%)
- Home Shots: 16
- Away Shots: 13
- Home Shots on Target: 6
- Away Shots on Target: 7
Error Analysis
Primary Reason: Home team had far more possession than expected
Error Categories: High Possession Error
Advanced Statistics
Detailed match statistics from the actual game.
- Home xG: 0.79
- Away xG: 1.43
- Possession: Home 34% - 66% Away
Model Performance
How the AI model has performed historically, so you can calibrate your trust in its predictions.
- This match: ✅ Correct — Predicted [object Object], Actual [object Object]
- Track record: The model is evaluated continuously. Visit the Tracking page for Brier scores, calibration curves, and accuracy by league.
- How predictions are made: Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting + Random Forest with Poisson-based score distributions, trained on historical match data, ELO ratings, and recent form.
Advanced Details
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is Away Win really likely to win?
- Away Win has a 49% edge — the model sees a slight advantage but recognizes the matchup is competitive. Draw (18%) and the other outcome are both realistic possibilities.
- How confident is the model in this ranking (Moderate, 33%)?
- Model Confidence measures how certain the AI is about the order of outcomes, not any single probability. The outcomes are somewhat close — the ranking is directionally reliable but not definitive.
- Why was this prediction correct?
- The match unfolded largely as the model expected — key metrics like xG and possession aligned with predictions, and no unexpected events (red cards, injuries) disrupted the forecast.
- How does the AI prediction model work?
- Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting and Random Forest models trained on historical match data, ELO team ratings, recent form, and statistical metrics. Score distributions use Poisson-based simulations for the most likely scorelines.