AI Verdict
Home Win — 70% probability ★★★★☆
- Predicted score: 1-0
- Outlook stable
Confidence: Decisive · Updated: Wed, May 27, 2026 06:00 AM
AI Prediction
Predicted outcome: Home Win (70% probability)
- Home Win: 70%
- Draw: 18%
- Away Win: 12%
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%)
Predicted scoreline: 1-0
Model Confidence
Confidence Rating: Decisive (75%)
Clear separation between top 2 outcomes
This measures how certain the AI is about the ranking of outcomes (Home Win > Draw > Away Win), not the probability of any single outcome.
Match Pulse
➡️ Outlook stable (LOW CONFIDENCE)
No significant events detected
Prediction Timeline
How the AI's prediction evolved during the match — from kickoff to final whistle.
Prediction Stability: Stable
Prediction remained stable
Probability swing: 0%
Turning Point: 18' — Equalizer at 18′ — the match shifted away from the predicted outcome
Equalizer at 18′ — the match shifted away from the predicted outcome
In-Match Probability Shifts
- — H: 70% / D: 18% / A: 12% [Kickoff]
- 7' — H: 82% / D: 14% / A: 4% [Goal]
- 18' — H: 72% / D: 9% / A: 19% [Goal]
- 40' — H: 62% / D: 4% / A: 34% [Goal]
- 77' — H: 74% / D: 1% / A: 25% [Goal]
- 89' — H: 83% / D: 1% / A: 16% [Goal]
Explainable AI Review
After the match, the AI explains why its prediction succeeded or failed.
Predicted: [object Object]
Actual: [object Object]
Prediction Correct? ✅ Yes
What Went Wrong — And Why
The model's prediction held — it expected a home win (70% confidence) but the match ended 3-2. LDU de Quito's attacking output (2.77 xG) exceeded expectations (~0.68 xG). Always Ready generated 2.37 xG, significantly above the ~0.12 xG the model projected. Primary factor: Opponent attacking strength underestimated.
Key Deviations
Where the match numbers diverged from model expectations.
- Possession: Expected 50%, Actual 53% (Δ3%)
- Home xG: Expected 0.68, Actual 2.77
- Away xG: Expected 0.12, Actual 2.37
- Home Shots: 20
- Away Shots: 23
- Home Shots on Target: 7
- Away Shots on Target: 11
Error Analysis
Primary Reason: Opponent attacking strength underestimated
Error Categories: High Opponent xG Error
Advanced Statistics
Detailed match statistics from the actual game.
- Home xG: 2.77
- Away xG: 2.37
- Possession: Home 47% - 53% Away
Model Performance
How the AI model has performed historically, so you can calibrate your trust in its predictions.
- This match: ✅ Correct — Predicted [object Object], Actual [object Object]
- Track record: The model is evaluated continuously. Visit the Tracking page for Brier scores, calibration curves, and accuracy by league.
- How predictions are made: Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting + Random Forest with Poisson-based score distributions, trained on historical match data, ELO ratings, and recent form.
Advanced Details
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why is Home Win the clear favorite?
- The AI model assigns 70% probability to Home Win, indicating strong confidence based on historical data, ELO ratings, and recent form analysis.
- How confident is the model in this ranking (Decisive, 75%)?
- Model Confidence measures how certain the AI is about the order of outcomes, not any single probability. A clear gap between the top two outcomes gives the model high conviction in its ranking.
- Why was this prediction correct?
- The match unfolded largely as the model expected — key metrics like xG and possession aligned with predictions, and no unexpected events (red cards, injuries) disrupted the forecast.
- How does the AI prediction model work?
- Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting and Random Forest models trained on historical match data, ELO team ratings, recent form, and statistical metrics. Score distributions use Poisson-based simulations for the most likely scorelines.