AI Verdict
Home Win — 43% probability ★★☆☆☆
- Predicted score: 1-0
- Outlook stable
Confidence: Moderate · Updated: Wed, May 27, 2026 08:30 AM
AI Prediction
Predicted outcome: Home Win (43% probability)
- Home Win: 43%
- Draw: 28%
- Away Win: 29%
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%)
Predicted scoreline: 1-0
Model Confidence
Confidence Rating: Moderate (34%)
Marginal separation — outcomes are close
This measures how certain the AI is about the ranking of outcomes (Home Win > Draw > Away Win), not the probability of any single outcome.
Match Pulse
➡️ Outlook stable (LOW CONFIDENCE)
No significant events detected
Prediction Timeline
How the AI's prediction evolved during the match — from kickoff to final whistle.
Prediction Stability: Stable
Prediction remained stable
Probability swing: 0%
Turning Point: N/A' — Model maintained confidence throughout the match
Model maintained confidence throughout the match
In-Match Probability Shifts
- — H: 43% / D: 28% / A: 29% [Kickoff]
- 7' — H: 55% / D: 25% / A: 20% [Goal]
- 45' — H: 43% / D: 29% / A: 28% [Red Card]
Explainable AI Review
After the match, the AI explains why its prediction succeeded or failed.
Predicted: [object Object]
Actual: [object Object]
Prediction Correct? ✅ Yes
What Went Wrong — And Why
The model's prediction held — it expected a home win (43% confidence) but the match ended 1-0. Club Nacional had 17% less possession than the model anticipated (33% actual vs ~50% expected). Primary factor: Home team had far less possession than expected.
Key Deviations
Where the match numbers diverged from model expectations.
- Possession: Expected 50%, Actual 33% (Δ-17%)
- Home xG: Expected 0.68, Actual 0.39
- Away xG: Expected 0.45, Actual 0.47
- Home Shots: 8
- Away Shots: 8
- Home Shots on Target: 3
- Away Shots on Target: 3
Error Analysis
Primary Reason: Home team had far less possession than expected
Error Categories: High Possession Error, Red Card Impact, Strong Calibration
Advanced Statistics
Detailed match statistics from the actual game.
- Home xG: 0.39
- Away xG: 0.47
- Possession: Home 67% - 33% Away
Model Performance
How the AI model has performed historically, so you can calibrate your trust in its predictions.
- This match: ✅ Correct — Predicted [object Object], Actual [object Object]
- Track record: The model is evaluated continuously. Visit the Tracking page for Brier scores, calibration curves, and accuracy by league.
- How predictions are made: Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting + Random Forest with Poisson-based score distributions, trained on historical match data, ELO ratings, and recent form.
Advanced Details
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is Home Win really likely to win?
- Home Win has a 43% edge — the model sees a slight advantage but recognizes the matchup is competitive. Draw (28%) and the other outcome are both realistic possibilities.
- How confident is the model in this ranking (Moderate, 34%)?
- Model Confidence measures how certain the AI is about the order of outcomes, not any single probability. The outcomes are somewhat close — the ranking is directionally reliable but not definitive.
- Why was this prediction correct?
- The match unfolded largely as the model expected — key metrics like xG and possession aligned with predictions, and no unexpected events (red cards, injuries) disrupted the forecast.
- How does the AI prediction model work?
- Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting and Random Forest models trained on historical match data, ELO team ratings, recent form, and statistical metrics. Score distributions use Poisson-based simulations for the most likely scorelines.