Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Thu, Jul 23, 2026 07:30 AM AI Verdict Home Win — 49% probability ★★★☆☆ C. Harper (New York Red Bulls) — Minor Missing Fixture A. Marcucci (New York Red Bulls) — Minor Missing Fixture I. Vassilev (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture Confidence: Moderate · Updated: Thu, Jul 23, 2026 07:30 AM AI Prediction Predicted outcome: Home Win (49% probability) Home Win: 49% Draw: 19% Away Win: 32% Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%) Model Confidence Confidence Rating: Moderate (48%) Marginal separation — outcomes are close Prediction Evolution (15 snapshots) 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0% 17:10 — Home 1% / Draw 0% / Away 0% (Δ Home +0.2%, Away -0.2%) 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0% (Δ Home -0.2%, Away +0.1%) 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0% 18:56 — Home 46% / Draw 25% / Away 29% (Δ Home +45.9%, Draw +24.5%, Away +28.6%) 18:56 — Home 46% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 46% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 46% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 46% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 46% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 46% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 46% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 46% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 46% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 46% / Draw 25% / Away 29% Advanced Details Match Signals 🩹 C. Harper (New York Red Bulls) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 A. Marcucci (New York Red Bulls) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 I. Vassilev (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 Q. Sullivan (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 J. Sery Larsen (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 E. Forsberg (New York Red Bulls) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 M. Dos Santos (New York Red Bulls) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 E. M. Choupo-Moting (New York Red Bulls) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 O. Makhanya (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 S. Korzeniowski (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 E. Davis III (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] Frequently Asked Questions Is Home Win really likely to win? Home Win has a 49% edge — the model sees a slight advantage but recognizes the matchup is competitive. Draw (19%) and the other outcome are both realistic possibilities. What is the biggest factor affecting this prediction? C. Harper (New York Red Bulls) — Minor Missing Fixture How confident is the model in this ranking (Moderate, 48%)? Model Confidence measures how certain the AI is about the order of outcomes, not any single probability. The outcomes are somewhat close — the ranking is directionally reliable but not definitive. How does the AI prediction model work? Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting and Random Forest models trained on historical match data, ELO team ratings, recent form, and statistical metrics. Score distributions use Poisson-based simulations for the most likely scorelines.