San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC Thu, Jul 23, 2026 10:30 AM AI Verdict Home Win — 71% probability ★★★★★ T. Werner (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture Vitor Costa (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture N. Miller (Orlando City SC) — Minor Missing Fixture Confidence: Decisive · Updated: Thu, Jul 23, 2026 10:30 AM AI Prediction Predicted outcome: Home Win (71% probability) Home Win: 71% Draw: 14% Away Win: 16% Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%) Model Confidence Confidence Rating: Decisive (100%) Clear separation between top 2 outcomes Prediction Evolution (11 snapshots) 17:10 — Home 1% / Draw 0% / Away 0% 17:10 — Home 1% / Draw 0% / Away 0% (Δ Home +0.1%) 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0% (Δ Home -0.4%, Draw +0.1%, Away +0.3%) 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0% 18:56 — Home 44% / Draw 23% / Away 33% (Δ Home +43.7%, Draw +22.5%, Away +32.9%) 18:56 — Home 44% / Draw 23% / Away 33% 18:56 — Home 44% / Draw 23% / Away 33% 18:56 — Home 44% / Draw 23% / Away 33% 18:56 — Home 44% / Draw 23% / Away 33% 18:56 — Home 44% / Draw 23% / Away 33% 18:56 — Home 44% / Draw 23% / Away 33% Advanced Details Match Signals 🩹 T. Werner (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 Vitor Costa (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 N. Miller (Orlando City SC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed 🩹 J. Gerbet (Orlando City SC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 N. Tsakiris (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 D. Jones (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 E. Edwards (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] Frequently Asked Questions Why is Home Win the clear favorite? The AI model assigns 71% probability to Home Win, indicating strong confidence based on historical data, ELO ratings, and recent form analysis. What is the biggest factor affecting this prediction? T. Werner (San Jose Earthquakes) — Minor Missing Fixture How confident is the model in this ranking (Decisive, 100%)? Model Confidence measures how certain the AI is about the order of outcomes, not any single probability. A clear gap between the top two outcomes gives the model high conviction in its ranking. How does the AI prediction model work? Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting and Random Forest models trained on historical match data, ELO team ratings, recent form, and statistical metrics. Score distributions use Poisson-based simulations for the most likely scorelines.