New York City FC vs Chicago Fire Sun, Jul 26, 2026 07:30 AM AI Verdict Home Win — 47% probability ★★☆☆☆ A. Saletros (Chicago Fire) — Minor Missing Fixture S. Oregel (Chicago Fire) — Minor Missing Fixture D. D'Avilla (Chicago Fire) — Minor Missing Fixture Confidence: Moderate · Updated: Sun, Jul 26, 2026 07:30 AM AI Prediction Predicted outcome: Home Win (47% probability) Home Win: 47% Draw: 18% Away Win: 35% Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%) Model Confidence Confidence Rating: Moderate (36%) Marginal separation — outcomes are close Prediction Evolution (16 snapshots) 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0% 17:10 — Home 1% / Draw 0% / Away 0% 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0% 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0% 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% (Δ Home +46.1%, Draw +24.3%, Away +28.6%) 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% 18:56 — Home 47% / Draw 25% / Away 29% Advanced Details Match Signals 🩹 A. Saletros (Chicago Fire) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 S. Oregel (Chicago Fire) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 D. D'Avilla (Chicago Fire) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 K. Parks (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 K. O'Toole (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 A. O'Neill (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 A. Franco (Chicago Fire) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 L. Barroso (Chicago Fire) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 J. Bamba (Chicago Fire) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%] 🩹 M. Moralez (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 A. Martinez (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] 🩹 D. Baiera (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%] Frequently Asked Questions Is Home Win really likely to win? Home Win has a 47% edge — the model sees a slight advantage but recognizes the matchup is competitive. Draw (18%) and the other outcome are both realistic possibilities. What is the biggest factor affecting this prediction? A. Saletros (Chicago Fire) — Minor Missing Fixture How confident is the model in this ranking (Moderate, 36%)? Model Confidence measures how certain the AI is about the order of outcomes, not any single probability. The outcomes are somewhat close — the ranking is directionally reliable but not definitive. How does the AI prediction model work? Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting and Random Forest models trained on historical match data, ELO team ratings, recent form, and statistical metrics. Score distributions use Poisson-based simulations for the most likely scorelines.