AI Verdict
Home Win — 64% probability ★★★★★
- J. Glad (Real Salt Lake) — Minor Missing Fixture
- C. Harvey (Minnesota United FC) — Minor Missing Fixture
- J. Diaz (Minnesota United FC) — Minor Missing Fixture
Confidence: Decisive · Updated: Sun, Aug 16, 2026 09:30 AM
AI Prediction
Predicted outcome: Home Win (64% probability)
- Home Win: 64%
- Draw: 16%
- Away Win: 20%
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%)
Model Confidence
Confidence Rating: Decisive (100%)
Clear separation between top 2 outcomes
Prediction Evolution (16 snapshots)
- 17:10 — Home 1% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 17:10 — Home 1% / Draw 0% / Away 0% (Δ Home -0.1%)
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32% (Δ Home +41.8%, Draw +25.3%, Away +32.0%)
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
Advanced Details
Match Signals
- 🩹 J. Glad (Real Salt Lake) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 C. Harvey (Minnesota United FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 J. Diaz (Minnesota United FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 J. J. Arias (Real Salt Lake) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 K. Yeboah (Minnesota United FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 A. Piol (Real Salt Lake) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 P. Stroud (Minnesota United FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 J. Rodriguez (Minnesota United FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 J. Gressel (Minnesota United FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 D. Luna (Real Salt Lake) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 E. Eneli (Real Salt Lake) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 J. Barea (Real Salt Lake) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why is Home Win the clear favorite?
- The AI model assigns 64% probability to Home Win, indicating strong confidence based on historical data, ELO ratings, and recent form analysis.
- What is the biggest factor affecting this prediction?
- J. Glad (Real Salt Lake) — Minor Missing Fixture
- How confident is the model in this ranking (Decisive, 100%)?
- Model Confidence measures how certain the AI is about the order of outcomes, not any single probability. A clear gap between the top two outcomes gives the model high conviction in its ranking.
- How does the AI prediction model work?
- Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting and Random Forest models trained on historical match data, ELO team ratings, recent form, and statistical metrics. Score distributions use Poisson-based simulations for the most likely scorelines.