AI Verdict
Home Win — 71% probability ★★★★★
- K. Parks (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture
- K. O'Toole (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture
- A. O'Neill (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture
Confidence: Decisive · Updated: Mon, Aug 17, 2026 06:30 AM
AI Prediction
Predicted outcome: Home Win (71% probability)
- Home Win: 71%
- Draw: 16%
- Away Win: 13%
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%)
Model Confidence
Confidence Rating: Decisive (100%)
Clear separation between top 2 outcomes
Prediction Evolution (16 snapshots)
- 17:10 — Home 1% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 17:10 — Home 1% / Draw 0% / Away 0% (Δ Home -0.1%, Away +0.1%)
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0% (Δ Home -0.1%)
- 17:10 — Home 0% / Draw 0% / Away 0%
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32% (Δ Home +42.2%, Draw +25.4%, Away +31.4%)
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
- 18:56 — Home 43% / Draw 26% / Away 32%
Advanced Details
Match Signals
- 🩹 K. Parks (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 K. O'Toole (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 A. O'Neill (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 I. Vassilev (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 Q. Sullivan (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 J. Sery Larsen (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 M. Moralez (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 A. Martinez (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 D. Baiera (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home -1%, Away +1%]
- 🩹 O. Makhanya (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 S. Korzeniowski (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
- 🩹 E. Davis III (Philadelphia Union) — Minor Missing Fixture ✅ confirmed [Impact: Home +1%, Away -1%]
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why is Home Win the clear favorite?
- The AI model assigns 71% probability to Home Win, indicating strong confidence based on historical data, ELO ratings, and recent form analysis.
- What is the biggest factor affecting this prediction?
- K. Parks (New York City FC) — Minor Missing Fixture
- How confident is the model in this ranking (Decisive, 100%)?
- Model Confidence measures how certain the AI is about the order of outcomes, not any single probability. A clear gap between the top two outcomes gives the model high conviction in its ranking.
- How does the AI prediction model work?
- Our ensemble combines Gradient Boosting and Random Forest models trained on historical match data, ELO team ratings, recent form, and statistical metrics. Score distributions use Poisson-based simulations for the most likely scorelines.